Methodology

Core principles

• Blank cells are missing, never zero.
• Every Identity analysis keeps identity_source attached.
• Observed-only Identity results should be shown beside analyses using window fills or legacy fallback.
• All three pillars are required for combined IDG measures unless a partial-data method is explicitly labeled.
• Formulas, weights, direction, minimum coverage and missing-data rules are stated before a new statistic is calculated.

Identity, Drive and Grit

Identity is the live modeled Identity pillar. Drive represents investment, innovation, business formation and growth drive. Grit represents labor and macroeconomic resilience. Higher values indicate stronger modeled performance.

Combined strength

combo_avg is the arithmetic mean of Identity, Drive and Grit and is blank unless all three pillars are available. combo_mult rewards balance by multiplying annually positive-shifted pillar values and also requires complete pillar coverage.

Identity provenance

Source status distinguishes survey_observed, survey_window_fill and legacy_civic_structural_fallback. Civic Cohesion remains a legacy structural proxy and should not be relabeled as direct national Identity.

Fracture and openness

Higher Identity Fracture means more fracture, unlike the strength measures. Openness Exposure is directionally neutral. It is not included in a strength index without an explicit theory justifying direction, and pre-1945 baseline rows are excluded from openness correlation and trend analysis.

Trend labels

A score change of at least +0.25 is labeled Getting Better; -0.25 or less is Getting Worse; changes between those thresholds are Flat. Current level and momentum should be interpreted separately.

Research rules

Correlation, lead/lag relationships and panel regressions are described as associations unless a separate causal design supports a causal claim. Experimental indices require sensitivity checks with alternative weights rather than presenting one arbitrary specification as definitive.